UCL Quarter-Finals: Málaga v. Dortmund profile

There’s no doubting that Málaga have earned their place in the quarter-finals. They weren’t in a group of death like Borussia Dortmund, but they did have to see off two teams with much more experience in Europe, and did it in expert fashion to win their group. They were also matched up against Porto in the Round of 16, who were one of the strongest runners up. Not only did they get past Porto, but they did it by conceding the fewest goals of any other team in the Round of 16. Their domestic league form is a little more suspect, but they’ve still run a strong campaign so far and currently sit in fourth.

Borussia Dortmund have earned their place, too, probably in the most emphatic fashion of any team in the Champions League this season, entering the quarter-finals undefeated in the competition. They ended up in this year’s especially deadly group of death, and were so dominant that they beat out the Dutch, Spanish, and English champions to win the group with a game to spare. They also beat out Shakhtar Donetsk – another very strong runner up – with ease in the Round of 16. However, like Málaga, their league form hasn’t been great recently this season, and unlike Málaga, this is a team that has managed to win the Bundesliga for the past two seasons.

By the numbers:

Borussia Dortmund Málaga
Record 5-3-0 4-3-1
Average Possession 44% 48%
Goals Scored 16 14
Shot (on target) 123 (54) 85 (38)
Conversion rate 13% 16.5%
Goals Conceded 6 6
Saves 27 30
Clean Sheets 3 4

Their stats so far are quite similar, but it’s important to note that Dortmund have been doing it against tougher competition overall.

The first leg of the tie is on April 3 at Málaga. The second leg at Dortmund will be played on April 9.

Buffeting the fixtures for Dortmund are Bundesliga matches with Stuttgart (likely on March 29), Augsburg (April 6), and Greuther Furth (likely on April 13). All three are relegation-threatened teams, which toward the end of the season can be a bit of a wild card. Still, Dortmund can afford a few slip ups and still qualify for the Champions League next year through the league, and will probably take the opportunity to rest players.

Málaga, on the other hand, are very much in danger of not qualifying for the Champions League through the league this season (assuming their ban on playing in Europe next season is overturned). They also have a tougher run of fixtures leading up to the match: they play Rayo Vallecano (likely on March 30), Real Sociedad (likely on April 6), and Osasuna (April 14). Rayo and La Real are both battling for a spot in Europe, while Osasuna are battling relegation.

On paper, the reigning German champions look likely to win this one. There’s always the possibility of an upset, but I see them going through.

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La Liga: Round 23 (projections)

Note: This is being published after the Mallorca/Osasuna game started – sorry. I wrote most of it up last night, but then I needed that little thing called sleep.

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Tracking Europe: Matchday 20-22

Tracking Europe: La Liga, Matchday 20-22

Something pretty catastrophic would have to happen for Barcelona and Real Madrid to fail to qualify for the UCL, but what about the other two spots? The competition for them is always heated, and this year, it doesn’t look like one of them will automatically go to Valencia.

So, throughout the season, I’m going to be tracking the five most likely contenders for those UCL spots, and recapping how their prospects look. Click through for matchdays 20-22.

Note: This is the fifth post in a series.

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Tracking Europe: half-season round-up

Something pretty catastrophic would have to happen for Barcelona and Real Madrid to fail to qualify for the UCL, but what about the other two spots? The competition for them is always heated, and this year, it doesn’t look like one of them will automatically go to Valencia.

So, throughout the season, I’m going to be tracking the five most likely contenders for those UCL spots, and recapping how their prospects look. Click through for a half-season round-up.

Note: This is the fourth post in a series. The first post detailing the teams I think are the most likely contenders can be found here.

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Tracking Europe: La Liga, Matchday 12

Something pretty catastrophic would have to happen for Barcelona and Real Madrid to fail to qualify for the UCL, but what about the other two spots? The competition for them is always heated, and this year, it doesn’t look like one of them will automatically go to Valencia.

So, throughout the season, I’m going to be tracking the five most likely contenders for those UCL spots, and recapping how their prospects look. Click through for matchday 11.

Note: This is the third post in a series. The first post detailing the teams I think are the most likely contenders can be found here.

Atlético Madrid

Result: Win (Granada 0-1 Atlético Madrid)
Change in position: None (2)

Atlético did end up winning this, but they weren’t very convincing, and I kind of felt like Granada might have deserved something out of this. They pressed forward throughout the game and actually had more possession, and once Atlético had a man sent off, it felt like they were just trying to hold on.

So on one hand, it’s tempting to predict an Atlético slump. On the other, though, it’s important to acknowledge that – as I said last week – these are the wins they need. You can’t go big every week, and all those 1-0 or 2-1 victories that you grind out over the course of the season despite not being particularly impressive on the day can end up being vital at the end.

They remain three points behind Barcelona and five ahead of Real Madrid.

Valencia CF

Result: Win (Valencia 2-1 Espanyol)
Change in position: 9 to 8 (will remain 9 if Rayo win tomorrow)

This was not a pretty game or a pretty win.

The ref handed out 14 yellows and 2 reds, many of which seemed unnecessary, and Valencia won in the 89′ when Soldado converted a controversial penalty call that led to two Espanyol players being sent off – one with a second yellow for the handball, and the other for dissent. Nobody looked very good, and Valencia really should have done better against an Espanyol side that’s been quite poor this season.

But they did win, and they did get the three points, and right now, points are more of Valencia’s problem than form is.

They current sit two points off Champions League qualification.

Sevilla

Result: Win (Sevilla 5-1 Real Betis)
Change in position: 10 to 7 (will be 8 if Rayo win tomorrow)

Well then.

This was just a slaughter. Betis were valiant, especially in the second half, but Sevilla just controlled the game. They scored in the first minute following an error from the keeper, and after that they were hungry and ruthless. Their passing was crisp, they got themselves out of tricky situations, and for once, they didn’t fall down when it came to finishing.

They were less impressive in the second half, but they still created chances and contained Betis, and when you’re 4-0 up at half time, that’s okay.

This was a very, very impressive display from Sevilla. It was nice to see the team that looked so promising at the start of the season again, especially against an opponent as strong as Betis (albeit a Betis coming off a rough couple weeks).

Sevilla sit two points off Champions League qualification.

Málaga

Result: Osasuna 0-0 Málaga
Change in position: None (5)

The alarm bells are definitely ringing. This was not good from Málaga. It’s not surprising, either, unfortunately.

Osasuna are very, very poor this season, and even away, Málaga should have been able to manage a win. They didn’t. In fact, they probably should have lost – Osasuna had a goal wrongly disallowed and were better overall.

As I said, it’s not surprising – Málaga don’t have enough depth, and I think their run of outstanding, logic-defying form is really coming to an end. I don’t expect them to have trouble staying up, but even a Europa spot at this point could be difficult.

They currently sit a point off CL qualification.

Levante

Result: Win (Deportivo La Coruña 0-2 Levante)
Change in position: 6 to 4

Like Málaga, Levante have clear weaknesses. Unlike Málaga, they keep plugging away anyway.

There was an element of luck in their win: Depor’s CBs both had to be substituted because of injury in the first 15 minutes of the game, and it definitely hurt their defense. They also had their keeper sent off after all their substitutions had been made, although their makeshift keeper didn’t end up being the deciding factor in the game.

However, a lot of this win was just what we’ve come to expect from Levante. They dug in their heels. Depor have more than double the possession and shots that Levante did, but ultimately, it didn’t matter.

Levante are currently 4th in the table.

Round Up

All the prospective contenders aside from Málaga got wins this week, and as I said last time, most were not playing particularly challenging teams. Still, these are important wins to get, and Sevilla in particular looked quite promising.

Looking Ahead

Next week will be dramatic and significant when it comes to Champions League qualification, since most of our contenders play each other and Levante play Barcelona.

Atlético Madrid v. Sevilla

This would be the game of the weekend if the weekend didn’t have several other great matches.

Atlético have been a strong side all season and are a force to be reckoned with, especially at home, but they looked less impressive this week and have a midweek game in Europa. Sevilla, on the other hand, have been inconsistent but are coming off a great win in the Sevilla derby, and will have a full week of rest.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Sevilla manage to win this one.

Málaga v. Valencia

Both Málaga and Valencia have midweek games, but Valencia, who play Bayern Munich at home on Tuesday, will have a day of rest on Málaga, who go away to Zenit St. Petersburg. Based on two teams’ run of form, Valencia will probably manage to win this.

Levante v. Barcelona

Given the fight Levante put up against Madrid last weekend, Barcelona will be happy to have a real back line again – assuming neither Pique nor Puyol get injured midweek, that is.

This could be interesting, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Barcelona struggle here.

Here ends the round 12 recap. Thanks for reading, and I’ll see you next time. You can find round 11 here, and round 10 can be found here.

Tracking Europe: La Liga, Matchday 11

Something pretty catastrophic would have to happen for Barcelona and Real Madrid to fail to qualify for the UCL, but what about the other two spots? The competition for them is always heated, and this year, it doesn’t look like one of them will automatically go to Valencia.

So, throughout the season, I’m going to be tracking the five most likely contenders for those UCL spots, and recapping how their prospects look. Click through for matchday 11.

Note: This is the third post in a series. The first post detailing the teams I think are the most likely contenders can be found here.

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