Tracking Europe: Matchday 20-22

Tracking Europe: La Liga, Matchday 20-22

Something pretty catastrophic would have to happen for Barcelona and Real Madrid to fail to qualify for the UCL, but what about the other two spots? The competition for them is always heated, and this year, it doesn’t look like one of them will automatically go to Valencia.

So, throughout the season, I’m going to be tracking the five most likely contenders for those UCL spots, and recapping how their prospects look. Click through for matchdays 20-22.

Note: This is the fifth post in a series.

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Could Real Madrid fail to make the Champions League?

I’ve been dismissing concerns others have voiced about this out-of-hand all season, because it just seems too absurd to be believable. However, as the season goes on, I’m beginning to wonder whether it’s not a real possibility.

There are a few real reasons to think that the unthinkable could happen.

1) Form.

To put it very bluntly, Real Madrid’s form is not improving. They haven’t strung together more than two consecutive wins in the league since November, and they’ve also started to drop points at home against relegation-threatened teams. There are serious problems in the locker room and the coach is clashing with several major players, so I don’t really see it getting better without any tangible changes. I don’t care what people say about “concentrating” on the Copa del Rey and the Champions League – if they’re not playing well in the league, they can’t put together the momentum necessary to realistically attain either of those things, especially La Décima.

2) Head-to-head.

It’s not inconceivable that Real Madrid could end up tied on points with one (or more) of these teams, and if they do, they could have a serious problem.

Betis and Málaga both beat them in the first half of the season, and Valencia managed a draw. If Valencia win tomorrow, they’ll have a better head-to-head. The same will be true of Betis and/or Málaga if they manage a draw at the Bernabeu, which is well within the realms of possibility.

For the first time in a long time, Real Madrid could end up second-best head-to-head against a team that isn’t Barcelona, and three of the teams for which it’s a real possibility would be very dangerous indeed if Real Madrid continue to drop points like they have been.

3) Caliber of rivals.

Real Madrid are unfortunate in that they’re having trouble in what is shaping up to be an exceptional year for several teams.

Last year, only one team outside the big two broke 60 points, and that was only just (Valencia, 61 points). That’s not looking like it’s going to be true this year. At this rate, it wouldn’t be surprising to see half a dozen teams outside the big two reach about 60, and it would be a bit surprising if only Atlético surpassed 70.

At the halfway point last season, only two teams outside the big two had managed to reach 30 points (Valencia, 34 points & Levante, 31 points). That’s not the case this year. After nineteen games, no fewer than five teams have reached 30 points: Atlético Madrid (44), Real Betis (34), Málaga (31), Valencia (30), and Levante (30). None of these teams shows signs of slowing down, and Valencia are actually speeding up.

That’s significant on two levels: first, it means that many of these teams are breathing down Madrid’s neck in a way that would not have been the case last season, and second, it means that they’re a lot more likely to drop points – they’ve already lost to Betis and Málaga and drawn with Valencia.

Realistically, Real Madrid probably will make the Champions League, but it’s looking like it could be tight, and I’m going to go way out on a limb and predict that they won’t. It seems bizarre and unthinkable, but so does 18 points, and that’s happened. We’ll see how this develops, but it could get really interesting.

Tracking Europe: half-season round-up

Something pretty catastrophic would have to happen for Barcelona and Real Madrid to fail to qualify for the UCL, but what about the other two spots? The competition for them is always heated, and this year, it doesn’t look like one of them will automatically go to Valencia.

So, throughout the season, I’m going to be tracking the five most likely contenders for those UCL spots, and recapping how their prospects look. Click through for a half-season round-up.

Note: This is the fourth post in a series. The first post detailing the teams I think are the most likely contenders can be found here.

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Tracking Europe: La Liga, Matchday 12

Something pretty catastrophic would have to happen for Barcelona and Real Madrid to fail to qualify for the UCL, but what about the other two spots? The competition for them is always heated, and this year, it doesn’t look like one of them will automatically go to Valencia.

So, throughout the season, I’m going to be tracking the five most likely contenders for those UCL spots, and recapping how their prospects look. Click through for matchday 11.

Note: This is the third post in a series. The first post detailing the teams I think are the most likely contenders can be found here.

Atlético Madrid

Result: Win (Granada 0-1 Atlético Madrid)
Change in position: None (2)

Atlético did end up winning this, but they weren’t very convincing, and I kind of felt like Granada might have deserved something out of this. They pressed forward throughout the game and actually had more possession, and once Atlético had a man sent off, it felt like they were just trying to hold on.

So on one hand, it’s tempting to predict an Atlético slump. On the other, though, it’s important to acknowledge that – as I said last week – these are the wins they need. You can’t go big every week, and all those 1-0 or 2-1 victories that you grind out over the course of the season despite not being particularly impressive on the day can end up being vital at the end.

They remain three points behind Barcelona and five ahead of Real Madrid.

Valencia CF

Result: Win (Valencia 2-1 Espanyol)
Change in position: 9 to 8 (will remain 9 if Rayo win tomorrow)

This was not a pretty game or a pretty win.

The ref handed out 14 yellows and 2 reds, many of which seemed unnecessary, and Valencia won in the 89′ when Soldado converted a controversial penalty call that led to two Espanyol players being sent off – one with a second yellow for the handball, and the other for dissent. Nobody looked very good, and Valencia really should have done better against an Espanyol side that’s been quite poor this season.

But they did win, and they did get the three points, and right now, points are more of Valencia’s problem than form is.

They current sit two points off Champions League qualification.

Sevilla

Result: Win (Sevilla 5-1 Real Betis)
Change in position: 10 to 7 (will be 8 if Rayo win tomorrow)

Well then.

This was just a slaughter. Betis were valiant, especially in the second half, but Sevilla just controlled the game. They scored in the first minute following an error from the keeper, and after that they were hungry and ruthless. Their passing was crisp, they got themselves out of tricky situations, and for once, they didn’t fall down when it came to finishing.

They were less impressive in the second half, but they still created chances and contained Betis, and when you’re 4-0 up at half time, that’s okay.

This was a very, very impressive display from Sevilla. It was nice to see the team that looked so promising at the start of the season again, especially against an opponent as strong as Betis (albeit a Betis coming off a rough couple weeks).

Sevilla sit two points off Champions League qualification.

Málaga

Result: Osasuna 0-0 Málaga
Change in position: None (5)

The alarm bells are definitely ringing. This was not good from Málaga. It’s not surprising, either, unfortunately.

Osasuna are very, very poor this season, and even away, Málaga should have been able to manage a win. They didn’t. In fact, they probably should have lost – Osasuna had a goal wrongly disallowed and were better overall.

As I said, it’s not surprising – Málaga don’t have enough depth, and I think their run of outstanding, logic-defying form is really coming to an end. I don’t expect them to have trouble staying up, but even a Europa spot at this point could be difficult.

They currently sit a point off CL qualification.

Levante

Result: Win (Deportivo La Coruña 0-2 Levante)
Change in position: 6 to 4

Like Málaga, Levante have clear weaknesses. Unlike Málaga, they keep plugging away anyway.

There was an element of luck in their win: Depor’s CBs both had to be substituted because of injury in the first 15 minutes of the game, and it definitely hurt their defense. They also had their keeper sent off after all their substitutions had been made, although their makeshift keeper didn’t end up being the deciding factor in the game.

However, a lot of this win was just what we’ve come to expect from Levante. They dug in their heels. Depor have more than double the possession and shots that Levante did, but ultimately, it didn’t matter.

Levante are currently 4th in the table.

Round Up

All the prospective contenders aside from Málaga got wins this week, and as I said last time, most were not playing particularly challenging teams. Still, these are important wins to get, and Sevilla in particular looked quite promising.

Looking Ahead

Next week will be dramatic and significant when it comes to Champions League qualification, since most of our contenders play each other and Levante play Barcelona.

Atlético Madrid v. Sevilla

This would be the game of the weekend if the weekend didn’t have several other great matches.

Atlético have been a strong side all season and are a force to be reckoned with, especially at home, but they looked less impressive this week and have a midweek game in Europa. Sevilla, on the other hand, have been inconsistent but are coming off a great win in the Sevilla derby, and will have a full week of rest.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Sevilla manage to win this one.

Málaga v. Valencia

Both Málaga and Valencia have midweek games, but Valencia, who play Bayern Munich at home on Tuesday, will have a day of rest on Málaga, who go away to Zenit St. Petersburg. Based on two teams’ run of form, Valencia will probably manage to win this.

Levante v. Barcelona

Given the fight Levante put up against Madrid last weekend, Barcelona will be happy to have a real back line again – assuming neither Pique nor Puyol get injured midweek, that is.

This could be interesting, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Barcelona struggle here.

Here ends the round 12 recap. Thanks for reading, and I’ll see you next time. You can find round 11 here, and round 10 can be found here.

Tracking Europe: La Liga, Matchday 11

Something pretty catastrophic would have to happen for Barcelona and Real Madrid to fail to qualify for the UCL, but what about the other two spots? The competition for them is always heated, and this year, it doesn’t look like one of them will automatically go to Valencia.

So, throughout the season, I’m going to be tracking the five most likely contenders for those UCL spots, and recapping how their prospects look. Click through for matchday 11.

Note: This is the third post in a series. The first post detailing the teams I think are the most likely contenders can be found here.

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Tracking Europe: La Liga, Matchday 10

Something pretty catastrophic would have to happen for Barcelona and Real Madrid to fail to qualify for the UCL, but what about the other two spots? The competition for them is always heated, and this year, it doesn’t look like one of them will automatically go to Valencia.

So, throughout the season, I’m going to be tracking the five most likely contenders for those UCL spots, and recapping how their prospects look. Click through for matchday 10.

Note: This is the second post in a series. The first post detailing the teams I think are the most likely contenders can be found here.

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Tracking Europe: La Liga Contenders for UCL Qualification

Between Valencia/Atlético and Sevilla/Levante this weekend, there have been some big results that could prove vital in the race for the remaining two UCL spots for next year. It occurred to me that people – even people who don’t necessarily love La Liga – might be interested in the reading about the prospects of the likely contenders.

Also, I’m interested in writing about it.

I’ll post an analysis of the round relating to the race for the UCL in the next couple days, but right now I want to identify the teams I see as the most likely contenders.

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